2025/03/04 GBP/JPY Strategy

It looks like the price faked a move up and then came back into the range again, but the higher timeframe picture is gradually changing.
There are more signs of an uptrend than last week.

However, from a day trading perspective, sellers currently have the upper hand, so I’m waiting for an entry point for a short.

Scenario A
If the price rises again, look for buying the dip with a bullish bias.
In this case, the first target is around 190.7.

Scenario B
If the price fails to break above around 190.0 and falls back, I’d like to go short.
The target in this case is 188.9.

Scenario C
Selling the rally after the price drops below around 188.9.
The target is around 188.3, but the entry point is quite likely to shift a little depending on how the chart looks at the time.
For now, I’m assuming the price will turn around near 188.9.

Review

Today’s chart was a tricky one again, but it wasn’t impossible to take something from it.

Going by the morning’s Scenario B, the blue circle would be the best spot, but selling there might be a bit difficult.
Price was making higher highs and higher lows, so shorting there feels a bit like countertrend trading.

That being the case, the trade would be a short at ○1 on the retracement after the clear turn down (lower highs) that followed.
Time the entry on the 5-minute chart (M5).
The idea is to catch the drop after a clean double top formed on the 1-hour chart (H1). With a limit exit at the lower line, that’s about 100 pips; closing manually while watching the chart once the move stalls, it’s about 75 pips.