2025/03/03 GBP/JPY Strategy

The morning started with buyers in control.
I basically want to approach today with a bullish bias, but the environment on the 4-hour chart (H4) and higher timeframes hasn’t changed much since last week.

Scenario A
Go long on a pullback in the current upward move.
The guide is around 189.5, but it’s probably better to allow a somewhat wider range.
A double top has formed at the recent high, so even after entry I need to be ready to exit at any time in case of a sharp drop.

Scenario B
Go long at support/resistance (S/R) after a new high is made.
The near-term target is around 190.7–191.

Scenario C
Price comes back into the range and last week’s movement continues.
Even in this case, the range may have shifted up to a higher price zone, so the short target for now is around 188.9.

Review

Price action was indecisive, but after the drop in the early afternoon I locked my bias to the sell side and looked for an entry on Scenario C.

The best entry point was at ○1, a selling-the-rally setup after lower highs formed on the 5-minute chart (M5).
The stop distance was tight too, making this the best spot of the day. The gain was around 50 pips.

After that, just as I wrote in the morning’s Scenario C, price bounced from 188.9 and kept climbing, but that rally wasn’t really one I could catch.