2025/03/06 GBP/JPY Strategy

I’m going in with a bullish bias. The target is around 193, and the idea is to pick up a pullback somewhere and enter.
If you’re already long from the pullback just after 8 am JST (23:00 UTC the previous day), just hold.
Based on the current chart, today’s strategy comes down to figuring out where the pullback will form.

Scenario A
Price breaks above the current rate and keeps rising.
If S/R forms around 192.4, I’ll consider an entry.
There’s also a chance it breaks out and runs straight up to around 193 without a pullback, in which case I’ll work out the next strategy.

Scenario B
Price drops first and forms a pullback.
I’m looking at around 192 as a guide, but the bias stays bullish until 191.7 breaks, so I need to carefully confirm the pullback has formed before entering.

Scenario C
For day trading, the scenario temporarily turns to selling.
I’m looking at around 191.3 as the target and will go for a short-term profit.

Review

Price failed to make a new high and then dropped sharply.
It feels like a sudden bearish shift even on the 4-hour chart (H4).

In terms of this morning’s scenarios, this was Scenario C. ○1 is a small retracement, but if you watch the lower timeframe very closely, you can get in.
At ○2, a bounce off support is a concern, but it’s a clean support/resistance (S/R) level, and judging from the downside momentum, it’s a spot where taking an entry is reasonable.

In the end, it turned into a dynamic drop typical of GBP/JPY.