2025/03/14 GBP/JPY Strategy

The upward flow is becoming increasingly clear, but whether price breaks above 192 will be the key point to watch for the time being.
Will it break through smoothly, or form a pullback first?
And how deep a pullback should we expect?
Today’s strategy is as follows.

Scenario A
Price breaks above 192 and continues higher.
The plan is buying the dip around 192.
Target is around 193.

Scenario B
Price drifts around for a while before moving higher.
In this scenario, I buy from the range low, using around 191.7 as a guide.

Scenario C
Price breaks below 191.7, leading to a deeper pullback or a bearish shift.
If price breaks below this price zone, the short-term bullish bias ends for now, but whether I can sell right away will depend on the shape of the chart at that point.
Around 191.5 just below could act as support, so if I consider a short, I think it would be after a break below 191.5.

Review

The result: by the time I made my morning strategy, I’d already missed the move.
It was a day where entering around the red circle and holding all the way to the blue line at 192.4 would have been a perfect score.
That said, the resistance at the pink line would have made me want to let go of the position.

After that, there weren’t really any entry points.
Looking only at the finished chart, it seems like you could have entered around 11 pm JST (14:00 UTC), when the decline started.
But the spread was also widening due to the data release, so that’s not realistic.