2025/03/13 GBP/JPY Strategy

Price has reached 192.4, the Scenario A target laid out in yesterday’s strategy.
The flow is up, but this is a resistance zone on the daily chart.
We need to seriously consider that it may not break through cleanly.
In the near term, the strategy is to buy until price breaks below 192.

Scenario A
A long entry after price breaks out of the current tight range, makes a new high, and forms higher lows.
The target is around 193.

Scenario B
Buying from the lower end within the current range.
The entry price zone is where the chart is right now, but highs are currently turning down (making lower highs), so I’ll wait and see a bit longer. The idea is to start building a long position once the decline stops and signs of a rise appear.

Scenario C
If price falls below 192, I’ll drop the bullish bias for now and wait and see.
The price zone marked by the red band on the chart is a zone where it could go either way, and there isn’t much room to run, so I expect there’s no need to get involved.
If it also breaks below 191.7, I’ll consider selling the retracement.

Review

Price broke out of the small morning range and dropped sharply. It retraced afterward, but given the overall conditions, it was a bit of a tough spot to enter.

This comes after the scenario update, but I think ○1 was a good spot for selling the rally once the bias turned bearish.
Taking profit right at the tip of the drop is difficult.
You could take profit when price crosses back above the pink line and reverses higher, or alternatively set a limit order in advance, treating the pink line as the target.
It was getting late at night, after all. 60 pips