2025/11/12 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Buy.

Price is ranging near the highs. The basic bias is to buy, but I’m watching which way it moves during the European session.
USD/JPY has broken above its high, but there’s no momentum so far, so it doesn’t feel like GBP/JPY will get dragged higher along with it.

Scenario A

Go long on a pullback after a break above Line A.
If it breaks above here, the target is around 203.8–9.

Scenario B

A pattern where price drops back into the range and then rises.
I think the lowest level where I can comfortably buy is around the letter B, but I’ll keep waiting for a buying opportunity until price breaks below C.
The target is around Line A, the range high

Scenario C

Consider selling on a break below the range.
The overall flow is bullish, so this isn’t a scenario I’m really expecting right now, but I think a move where price drops, chops around, and the price range narrows is also possible.
If selling, the target is around 202.1

Review

This was a buy under Scenario A.

Price broke out to the upside once and then dropped sharply, so I was wary of a bearish shift, but I judged the next point where the lows turned up (making higher lows) again to be a pullback and went long at the red circle.
However, this didn’t extend either and quickly came back down, so it was an exit.
Exiting right away when the rise on the 5-minute chart (M5) broke down would have given a small profit of around 10 pips; if you couldn’t get out there, it was a breakeven exit.

Typical price action near the highs.