2025/11/04 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy
Today's GBP/JPY call: Sell.
The situation hasn’t changed much from yesterday, but my impression is that selling has more of an edge than it did yesterday.
Right now I’m waiting for a retracement.
Scenario A
If price breaks through the area around Line A, I’d think it might be rising again, but I expect the recent high on the 4-hour chart to keep acting as resistance.
Target: 203.1
Scenario B
If price comes back up to the range high around the letter B, I’ll sell.
The target is 202.1, but a break to the downside would be juicy.
Scenario C
Selling the rally after a break to the downside.
The target is 201.3, but be careful, as there is support around 201.6–7.
Review
Price fell.
I’d like to say it played out as Scenario C, but it dropped without a proper retracement.
Depending on how you read it, you could enter at ○1, but since it’s at the range low, the risk is on the higher side.
After that, the retracement at ○2, following the break below the pink line around 201.6 that I had marked as support, was a sell.
It’s a short that takes into account the possibility that, given the downside momentum, price would break through the target and fall further.
I expected it to drop as far as the yellow line at most, but in the end it fell even further.
Taking profit at the yellow line would be about 100 pips, and since there wasn’t much sign of a bounce, holding would have been fine too.
This article reflects the author's personal view of the market. It does not recommend any specific trade; all investment decisions are your own responsibility.
