2025/10/28 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Sell.

There was a good opportunity around noon JST (03:00 UTC), but if you’re trading from here, it’s a matter of waiting for a retracement.
The bias is aligned to the sell side, so I want to wait patiently for the right timing.

Scenario A

If price breaks above Line A, it’s heading up again.
However, if it gets above Line A from the current level, market conditions will have changed, so the strategy will need to be rebuilt.
It may turn into a range that’s hard to trade.
If I were to set a target, around 203.9

Scenario B

It’d be nice if price retraces up to around here.
There’s good room to run, so it’s an easy sell.
Target is 202.6

Scenario C

When momentum is strong, pullbacks and retracements are often shallow.
On the 15-minute level, a retracement to Line C is shallow, but it’s a role reversal line on the 4-hour.
It’s worth getting in while accepting a certain amount of risk.
The target is likewise 202.6, but if price breaks through it, down to 202.1

Review

It was Scenario C.

Short from where price came back to Line C.
It reached the target in one go, but a sharp drop can be followed by a V-shaped reversal, so take profit without getting greedy. 100 pips
As it turned out, holding and carrying it overnight into the next day would have been fine too.