2025/10/17 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Sell.

The daily chart is losing momentum, the 4-hour is ranging, and the 1-hour is a sell.
The strategy is to either sell the 15-minute range from the top, or follow the move once it breaks below.

Scenario A

I’ll buy on a break above the range, but the pink line just above Line A is a bit of a concern.
I think it’s better to aim for a pullback after price clears the pink line as well.
Target is around 202.5

Scenario B

It’s a clear range, so if price retraces back to around Line A, I’ll sell again.
Target is around 201.4

Scenario C

Selling the rally after a break below the current range.
It’s unclear how far it will retrace, but around 201.9 looks like one candidate.
Target is the same as Scenario B.
If price reaches the target without retracing, I’ll need to rebuild the strategy.

Review

It played out as Scenario C.

Right after I wrote up the morning strategy, price broke below the low with a candle body, and I went short from the red circle on the retracement that followed.
As described in Scenario C, I sell from where the move stalls around 201.9.

Price passed straight through the target and kept falling, so I hold, but I take profit once it forms a short-term double bottom. 77 pips

There is a long lower wick a little before the take profit, and here you need to recognize that price has nearly reached a key level on the daily chart.
The yellow horizontal line just below the wick tip is the daily key level. Price is unlikely to keep falling beyond it, and the risk of a reversal to the upside becomes high.