2025/10/09 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Buy.

Looking only at the 15-minute chart (M15), the picture is unclear, but on the 1-hour chart (H1) this is a spot for buying the dip.
Whether I really want to buy aggressively is questionable, though. It feels like more and more traders are choosing to wait and see.

Scenario A
If price breaks above Line A, yesterday’s high, I’ll take it as a continuation of the uptrend, but I think it will only go up to around 205.7, a key level on the daily chart.
The downside risk is also getting higher.

Scenario B
A scenario where price is supported at Line B and we buy.
If you buy from here, assume you may get stopped out on a drop, and once you’ve entered, it’s best to leave the trade alone until it rises.
There are about 70 pips to the recent high, so the risk-reward isn’t bad.
Target is around 205.2

Scenario C
If price breaks below Line B, it looks likely to drop for a while.
This scenario is to wait for a retracement and then go short.
The MA on the 1-hour chart (H1) is also starting to cap price from above, so there are signs it could fall.
Target is 204

Review

It was Scenario C.

Short from ○1, the first retracement after price fell without finding support.
Take profit without hesitation once the target is reached. 40 pips
This is a level price is unlikely to break through in one go, so even if you got greedy and held, you’d take profit when it came back to test 204 again.

After that it’s wait and see, but another Scenario C short is available from ○2.
One is a 15-minute-level retracement and the other is a 1-hour-level retracement.
Normally you can take two shots like this.

The short from ○2 can be held.
In that case, you carry it overnight into the next day.
If your rule is no overnight positions, take profit at the short-term bounce around the blue line at 203.9 and you’re done. 43 pips