2025/10/14 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Buy.

Price broke out of yesterday’s range.
The daily chart also printed a bullish candle yesterday, so it feels like the rise will continue.
I’d like to wait for a 1-hour-level pullback first before buying.

Scenario A

If price breaks above the recent high, the scenario is to buy on short-term pullbacks.
This assumes a pattern where price rises without any major pullback.
Target is 203.8

Scenario B

A buy after price comes back down to around Line B, yesterday’s range high.
This is the most ideal scenario.
If price comes back to around Line B, the short-term picture will have turned bearish.
I want to confirm the reversal there and look for a long.
Target is 203.8, but depending on the situation I’ll also consider holding.

Scenario C

If price breaks below the recent low around 203, I’ll switch my bias to selling for now.
However, it would turn into a range, so it’s better to be cautious with entries.
Target is around 202.6, but I think this would mean rebuilding the strategy.

Review

No trade

Price dropped sharply in one go from the 4-hour rally high.
Sometimes that happens.

Along the way, the spot where you could judge it a sell and get in is the red circle.
This was a crossroads where the daily chart might turn into a bearish candle, and you can enter once price has been stopped multiple times on the 5-minute chart (M5).