2025/10/22 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Buy.

My basic bias is bullish, and I’m expecting a break above the 4-hour chart (H4) high, but right now the market is ranging.
Short term, the picture favors selling, so I’m looking to go long once I can tell where the decline stops.

Scenario A

This scenario targets a pullback after price breaks the short-term rally high.
On the 4-hour chart (H4), I can picture price rising with the area around line B as the pullback, so this scenario rides that move.
Target is around 204

Scenario B

I see the bottom of the range around the blue line at B, but it’s hard to judge without watching a bit longer.
Down to the pink line at C it’s still technically a buy, but I can’t buy until a reversal move shows up.
If buying from around line B, the target is 203.5

Scenario C

If price breaks below line B, things get pretty tough.
Even on the current chart it’s a sell short term, so if line B breaks, it’s reasonable to consider selling the rally, but the pink line around C will act as support.
The blue line just below it will also act as support.
At the day-trade level, the room to target only extends to around the blue line at 202.1, so depending on how the chart shapes up, I’ll pass.

Review

No entry point matched the scenario.

I was watching for a selling opportunity under Scenario C, but it never formed a good setup.
As I wrote in the morning scenario, the pink line near C and the blue line below it act as support, so entering carelessly there carries a lot of risk.
That’s because this is the price zone that forms the pullback low on the 4-hour chart.

This came after the scenario update, but the reversal higher from there, marked with the red circle, is a long.
It’s a textbook reversal to the upside and an easy spot to read.
Since the 1-hour chart (H1) was still likely to be a sell, you take profit once momentum fades. That gets you around 60 pips.