2025/10/30 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Buy.

On a day-trading level, I think a bullish bias is fine.
The 4-hour chart has been falling, so the strategy is to catch the retracement from that drop.

Scenario A

If price breaks above Line A, I’ll take that as the start of a move up and look to go long on a short-term pullback.
The target is around 202, so there isn’t much room to run.
This may turn into a quick battle where you grab the move and take profit fast.

Scenario B

I’m looking to buy within the current range.
The idea is to find a buying opportunity somewhere in the range between A and C.
Buying on a turn up (higher lows) near Line C is best, but the blue line around 201.3 near B also looks likely to act as support.
There’s selling pressure around Line A, so it’s fine to wait and see in this price zone and only get in after it breaks one way or the other.
The target is the recent high at Line A, and if it breaks above, around 202.

Scenario C

If price breaks below the low, wait for a retracement and look to go short.
Since it’s a range, the approach is to properly wait for the retracement before selling.
The target is the yellow line, the same as yesterday’s Scenario C.
The daily chart looks like it’s turning down (making lower highs), so there may be potential for a further drop.

Review

It played out as Scenario A.

The big rally just before the red circle was the policy rate announcement.
There were fundamental factors behind the rise too, so it moved a lot.

Technically, this was a pullback after reaching 202, which I had written about in Scenario A, so the long at the red circle came in a situation where an uptrend was forming and a break of the high could be expected.
In the end, my impression is that it rallied as far as it possibly could, to a level where you could say there would be no further upside that day.
I think you can see this clearly on the 4-hour chart (H4).
Reaching this blue line meant taking profit without hesitation. 130 pips