2025/11/05 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Sell.

Price is falling, so I’m waiting for a retracement.
It’s coming down to close a gap from a while back, but this is a price zone where a bounce wouldn’t be surprising.

Scenario A

Line C is a key level on the daily chart.
You could argue price has already reached Line C, so a bounce and move higher from here is also possible.
On a day-trading timeframe it’s a sell until price breaks above Line B, so the scenario is to buy the pullback after it clears Line B.
However, the yellow line at 200.6 will act as resistance, so even if you buy, it’s better to take profit once at the yellow line.

Scenario B

If the current flow takes another leg down, a retracement up to around Line B would make for an easy entry.
However, the move described in Scenario A is also possible, so if selling, the target is the recent low at Line C.
If it breaks below, that’s a bonus.

Scenario C

If price breaks below Line C, I think there’s room to fall to around 197.6 for the time being.
The idea is to catch the move down toward that level, so I want to sell into a retracement.
There’s a horizontal line around 198.3 along the way, so watch the price action there, with a target of 197.6

Review

It played out as Scenario A.

Line C is a key level on the daily chart and also a gap fill, so I was expecting a rise, but it went up quite a bit.
The entry opportunity was at either of the red circles.
Both are entries based on the same logic.
Closing the position when price reached the yellow target line is fine too, but since there was no turning down (making lower highs), if you were watching the chart you would hold.
Price turns down at the next line up, so that’s where you take profit. 115 pips