2025/04/30 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy
GBP/JPY trade strategy for 2025/04/30: sell
The market is still somewhat tricky.
The daily chart is rising, but momentum is fading, and the 4-hour chart is forming something like a flag.
The 1-hour chart can reasonably be seen as a bearish shift, and price is in a price zone that’s just right for selling the rally.
On the 15-minute chart (M15), price has been stopped several times right at a resistance zone.
As long as it doesn’t break through here, I’ll look for the timing for a sell entry.
Scenario A
If price breaks above the current resistance line around 190.9, I’ll treat the 4-hour chart as continuing its uptrend and look to buy the dip.
Target: around 191.7
Scenario B
If price can’t get above resistance, I’ll look to sell.
I’ll only judge that it has failed to break above after clearly confirming a loss of momentum through lower highs.
Target: around 190.3
Scenario C
If price breaks below around 190.3, I’ll assume a correction on the daily chart level and look to sell from small retracements.
Target: around 189.5
Review
Price breaks to the upside for a while, so going long on the pullback just before 6 pm JST (09:00 UTC) is fine.
Ideally I’d wait for price to come a bit closer to the line, but it’s also the pullback low on the 5-minute chart (M5), so entering as a short-term trade is OK.
After that, price drops sharply and the strategy gets updated.
The first opportunity is the short at circle ①.
Looking only at the 15-minute chart (M15), it looks like a breakout entry, but on the 5-minute chart (M5) it’s the timing for selling a small rally.
Price has come back below the line around 190.9 that had been capping it the whole time, and the entry is from support/resistance (S/R) on the 5-minute chart (M5).
It’s right after the data release, so you need to react quickly, but the spread and price action settled down right away, so it’s well worth taking.
After that comes the short from circle ②.
On the 1-hour chart it’s a good price zone for selling the rally, so this one is easy to enter.
Then take profit where price fails to keep falling and starts turning up (making higher lows). About 25 pips.
This article reflects the author's personal view of the market. It does not recommend any specific trade; all investment decisions are your own responsibility.
