2025/05/01 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

The GBP/JPY trade strategy for 2025/05/01: sell

It’s May as of today.
Starting with the monthly chart, April printed a long lower wick and held on the support line. Still in an uptrend.
The weekly chart is making lower highs, so the bearish bias remains. This is an ideal price zone for selling the rally.
The daily chart is in a correction after breaking above a key level and rallying. The bias is bullish, but it’s looking for a pullback.
Taking all of this into account, the market context is still complicated, so a thorough multi-timeframe analysis is needed.

Scenario A
Buying the dip after price clears the short-term key level around 190.6.
Yesterday price dropped to around 190 and made a low, so the idea is to ride the rebound from there.
I think it’s unlikely this will lead straight into a continuation of the daily uptrend, so the target is around 191.2.

Scenario B
There was a perfect entry point first thing this morning, but if price comes back to that level again, I’ll look to sell.
Since it’s a range, I’ll enter only with confirmation, such as lower timeframes turning down (making lower highs).
Target around 190

Scenario C ※Revised at 11:45 am JST (02:45 UTC)
If price breaks below around 190, I’ll treat it as a bearish shift.
The point for selling the rally won’t necessarily be around 190. I’m also allowing for a retracement up to around the pink line at 190.3.
The target is around 189.5.
The 4-hour and daily charts are rising, so watch out for a sharp rebound.

Review

The market moved sharply on the policy rate announcement.
Technically, there was no place to get in.
Besides, I was looking to sell in the morning.

After that, you could enter long at the red circle.
This is the line I had been watching as a key level on the daily chart.
The entry comes once price breaks above it, stalls a little, forms a pullback, and then starts rising again.

After entering, you could take profit before the evening data release, or, since the trade is already about 50 pips in profit at that point, it’s also fine to hold and wait and see.
If you hold, close the position mechanically when price reaches the green line.