2025/04/23 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

The GBP/JPY trade strategy for 2025/04/23 is: buy.

The chart is at a tricky spot right now.
A break below here would flip me to a bearish bias, but for now I still see the bullish bias as just barely intact.
I may need to update the trade strategy in the afternoon.
Based on the current chart, the scenarios I’m expecting are:

Scenario A
Buying the dip after price breaks above the daily chart key level.
As I’ve written before, this is a major key level, so watch out for false breakouts on the 15-minute chart.
I’ll look to buy the dip only after a clean break above on the 1-hour chart (H1).
Target is around 190.7.

Scenario B
A long aimed at price holding near the current 1-hour chart (H1) pullback low and rising again.
Target is around 189.5.

Scenario C
If price breaks below, I’ll look to sell at the day-trading level.
That would be a move where price fails to clear the daily chart key level and drops, but the daily chart has been turning up (making higher lows), so it’s probably best not to get greedy.
First target is around 188.2.

Review

The early part was tricky.
Circle ① is a short on the retracement after the break to the downside, but on the 1-hour chart it’s just a wick, so it’s questionable.
If you did enter, you’d see the sharp rise off the touch of the lower green line and exit with a small profit or at breakeven.

After that, circle ② is a long on the retracement after the break to the upside.
This one comes late at night, so it’s a matter of setting a limit order.
I’d set it around 189.5, the recent high and a key level on the daily chart.
If you’re watching the chart, there’s no sign of it dropping, so you could let it run further.