2025/04/16 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

The GBP/JPY trade strategy for 2025/04/16 is: buy
Price is approaching a major key level, and the chart has barely moved since yesterday.
The daily chart is bearish and the 4-hour chart is bearish too, but if price breaks above around 189.5, the market context will change.
Right now, price is gradually turning up (making higher lows) and narrowing its price range.
For these reasons, today I still want to look for buys for day trading.

Scenario A
Buying the dip after price breaks above the red line.
Since this is a major key level, I’ll enter while watching out for a false breakout.
The short-term target is around 190.6. If upward momentum develops, up to around 192.

Scenario B
A long from around 188.8, which I see as today’s range low.
Rather than buying as soon as price reaches this price zone, I’ll enter after confirming it doesn’t drop any further.
The target is around 190.6.

Scenario C
If price breaks below 188.8, I’ll look to sell on a day-trading level.
The target is around 188.2.

Review

Price failed to break the daily chart key level and dropped.
○1 is a small retracement, but you can short it at the support/resistance (S/R) relative to the recent low.
Another big reason is that the higher timeframe market context pointed to a decline.

It goes against the usual theory, but the blue circle is also a short.
This is a trade inside a range where the movement has completely stalled.
Entering from the edge of a range gives a very good risk-reward ratio, so in this market context it’s a valid option.