2025/04/09 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

The GBP/JPY trade strategy for 2025/04/09 is to sell.
After last week’s big drop, Monday and Tuesday were range-bound.
Having taken that time to form a retracement, the pair is now heading lower again.
However, the low visible on the current 15-minute chart (M15) is a major key level, so watch whether price breaks further below it or bounces.

Scenario A
If price breaks above around 187.3, it would be moving back into the range.
In the short term, I’d like to look for a buy.
Target is around 188.2.

Scenario B
Price fails to break above 187.3 and falls.
I see this as the most likely scenario.
On a very short-term bias, there’s a good chance of a bullish shift, so I’ll aim to enter only after clearly confirming lower highs.
Target is around 186.1, but I’ll decide on taking profit while also allowing for a further break below.

Scenario C
Selling the rally after a break below.
The idea is to wait for a clean break below the line around 186.1 and then target the retracement.
Even if price breaks slightly below on the 15-minute level, there’s a risk of a false breakout, so be careful.
My first target is around 185.3, but I think it could extend as far as around 184.

Review

This was a pattern where price struggled to break below the low, and once it did, it dropped without any retracement.
○1 was the selling-the-rally point I had in mind for Scenario B, but entering there is difficult.
That’s because there’s still some distance to the line, and the sense of upside stalling is weak.

After that, if you’re willing to take on risk, entering at either of the ○2 points is fine.
At this point, the lower highs on the 1-hour chart (H1) became clear, and you can judge that a break below is highly likely.
However, as I wrote in the morning, this price zone is strong support, so you need to watch out for a sharp rebound.
Going in with that understanding is a valid option.