2025/04/08 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

The GBP/JPY trade strategy for 2025/04/08 is a near-term buy.
Monday barely moved, but that’s a common pattern after a sharp crash and spike.
The chart isn’t forming any waves, so everyone is in wait-and-see mode.
It’s currently ranging, and the expected range is 187.3–188.8.
Within that range, I see buyers as having a slight edge.

Scenario A
The pattern where price breaks above the range and keeps rising.
Even in this case, rather than treating 188.8 as the pullback, it’s better to allow for a dip down to around the green line below it and wait patiently for the entry point.
Target is around 189.5

Scenario B
I have a feeling Scenario B could get pretty tricky.
Right now the lows are turning up (making higher lows) within the range, so if price drops to the range low, I expect bearish bias and bullish bias to clash.
If you’re buying in Scenario B as well, enter only after confirming the low is holding firm and price won’t go any lower.

Scenario C
The pattern where the decline resumes once again.
Given the higher timeframe environment, I feel it’s unlikely to drop with the kind of momentum we saw last week.
Target is around 186.4, but it could reverse and rise without reaching the target, so don’t leave the position unattended after entry—keep monitoring it.

Review

It wasn’t in the morning trade strategy, but ○1 is a buy.
The shape suggests a short-term move up for now.
That said, rather than holding, the idea is to take profit quickly once price reaches the line.
That’s because it’s a selling-the-rally point on the 4-hour chart (H4) and a strong resistance on the 1-hour chart (H1).
Even so, you can get about 40 pips.

After that, the trade strategy needs to be rebuilt, but ○2 is a sell.
It’s the retracement after the break below the line that had been acting as support, and it also formed a short-term double top, so it’s an easy sell.
The market context mentioned above is also part of the premise.
Take profit where the drop stalled at the blue line. 45 pips

After that, the direction becomes unclear for a while, so it’s wait and see, but ○3, after price turned down again, is a short.
The risk-reward isn’t that great, and a long upper wick appears right after entry, so depending on your stop-loss level, this is the pattern where you get stopped out.
Timing-wise, it’s past 3 am JST (18:00 UTC the previous day), so I normally wouldn’t take it.