2025/04/04 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy
My GBP/JPY trade strategy for 2025/04/04 is basically wait and see.
Technically it’s a sell, but price has come down to a pretty significant key level, and NFP (nonfarm payrolls) is due tonight, so I don’t feel the need to force a trade.
If I do trade, these are the scenarios I have in mind.
Scenario A
A long aiming for the upside as price puts in a retracement within the overall decline.
I’d like to switch to a bullish bias if price gets above 192, but I think 192.4 will also act as resistance, so I don’t want to touch the hatched zone.
Whether I go long depends on how the chart shapes up.
Target is around 193.2.
Scenario B
Price is ranging in the 192 to 191.3 price zone, so this scenario is selling from the range high.
I think 191.3 is strong support, so you need to be careful if you go short in this price zone.
Even if you enter, take profit once price reaches the range low.
Scenario C
Selling the rally after a break below.
Watch out for false breakouts. I’ll be targeting the retracement after a clean break below.
The target would probably be around 190.
Review
Scenario C played out.
With NFP (nonfarm payrolls) coming up, I thought price would drift around in the range a bit longer, but with the weekly chart and lower timeframes all aligned in the same direction, and given the current state of the world, it ended up dropping sharply.
There were two entry points: ○1 and ○2.
If you entered at ○1, the take profit would be where price bounced off the 190.3 line. 90 pips
That said, judging by the shape at the time of profit-taking, I think simply holding would also have been fine.
If you took profit, or if you missed the move at ○1, ○2 becomes the opportunity.
As in the morning scenario, I’m looking at 190 as the target, but the downward momentum was strong, and price kept turning down (making lower highs) even when it reached 190, so you could hold.
In that case, the take profit point is around the spot marked on the chart above.
That’s where the decline stopped in the short term. 225 pips
Alternatively, taking profit as soon as price touched the green line at 188.2 is also fine.
The green line is the price where I expect the daily chart to end up.
This article reflects the author's personal view of the market. It does not recommend any specific trade; all investment decisions are your own responsibility.
