2026/05/07 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Sell.

With the Golden Week holidays wrapping up, it’s about time to get back into the market.
During the holidays, currency intervention caused wild swings, and the chart is now taking a shape that suggests a strong determination not to let the yen weaken any further.

Market context: all higher timeframes are bearish. The 1-hour chart is ranging, but sellers have the upper hand.
The 15-minute chart (M15) could go either way, but given the market context, I have a bearish bias.

Right now, price is rising on the 5-minute chart (M5), so the plan is roughly to go short if this rise breaks down within the range.

Review

The price went up.

Early on, I had a bearish bias.
From the chart at the time of the scenario, you could go short at the red circle, the retracement after the drop on the 5-minute chart (M5).
Price bounced off the recent low near the C line, so I exited with a small profit. 5 pips
You could also treat it as a range and take profit quickly at the recent low, but the moves were fast, so that’s tricky.