2026/04/17 USD/JPY Trade Strategy
Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.
Around 8 am JST (23:00 UTC the previous day) was a good place to buy.
If you’re holding a position, it’s still fine to hold, but the daily chart has moved into consolidation and the room to run is narrowing.
If price can’t break above the blue line just above A, I’d close out.
If you’re trading from here, the best approach is to wait for price to come back inside the range once more.
Looking only at the 15-minute chart (M15), it may look like a trend is forming, but the higher timeframe environment isn’t good, so jumping in hastily might leave you struggling.
Review
No trade.
The market context changed after I wrote the scenario. There was nowhere to trade within the scenario.
The position from first thing in the morning would be closed at the blue ●.
As you can see on the daily chart, this price zone sits right at the trend line of a triangle consolidation, so if price can’t break above it, the only way is down.
If you were reading the market context that way, ○1, the S/R flip bounce after price broke the 15-minute chart (M15) pullback low, is a perfect spot to go short.
After that, ○2 is also an easy entry.
At ○2, the retracement of the recent drop fits neatly into the Fibonacci levels, it’s a spot that can be considered a rally high on the 5-minute chart (M5) level, and the 20 MA is capping price from above. Based on those reasons, it’s a spot where you just go for it and jump in!
This article reflects the author's personal view of the market. It does not recommend any specific trade; all investment decisions are your own responsibility.
