2026/04/16 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Sell.

Leaning toward selling. That said, on the higher timeframe, it looks like we could also see a long lower wick form and a move up from here.
In that case, the area around line B is likely to act as support.
If selling, the idea is to wait for price to start turning down (making lower highs) and then sell.

Either way, the market context on the daily and 4-hour charts is one I’d rather not touch, so the best approach seems to be short-term trading, quickly grabbing moves from one key level to the next.

Review

It was Scenario A.

After price broke above Line A, the S/R flip bounce followed by turning up (making higher lows) made it an easy spot to buy.
The take profit came after price touched the 159.3 target, at the point where a double top formed on the 5-minute chart (M5) and price started turning down (making lower highs). 25 pips

Looking at the 1-hour chart (H1), it’s in an uptrend, so it’s tempting to hold, but the higher timeframe is unclear, so I can’t hold this one.