2026/04/06 USD/JPY Trade Strategy
Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.
The daily chart and 4-hour chart are near the highs, while the 1-hour chart has stalled and is ranging.
My basic stance is a bullish bias, but rather than buying on a break to the upside, I’m picturing buying if it drops to the range low.
In the past, the spread used to widen on Good Friday and Easter Monday, but I wonder if that’s not really the case lately.
Review
It was a range.
In the first half, price broke below Line C, so you could have aimed for a short from ○1 as a sell on the retracement.
However, while I was treating Line C as the blue line around 159.4, on the 1-hour chart (H1) the range low could also be the pink line below it, so it was a bit hard to get involved.
If you were going short on the assumption that the pink line might be the range low, that’s fine.
After that, you would close out the ○1 position around ○2.
If you had kept a bullish bias based on the 1-hour chart (H1), going long from ○2 was also an option.
In terms of scenarios, this is along the lines of Scenario B.
This isn’t an easy market, so I think it’s fine to just sit out at times like this.
This article reflects the author's personal view of the market. It does not recommend any specific trade; all investment decisions are your own responsibility.
