2026/03/31 USD/JPY Trade Strategy
Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.
Price dropped yesterday, falling from near the highs on the daily chart, but it seems to be just barely holding on around the 4-hour pullback low.
From a day-trading perspective, this is a somewhat tricky situation.
My bias is to buy, but on the 15-minute chart (M15) level, selling is also a valid option.
The scenario is to buy after seeing downside stalling and higher lows, but I need to watch a bit longer to know whether that happens around the B line or only after price falls all the way to the C line.
Review
It played out as Scenario C.
In the first half I had a bullish bias, but the bearish bias on the 15-minute chart (M15) never made a bullish shift, and price dropped.
Simply trading the M15 sell scenario would have worked fine.
In that case, you could sell from the range high at the blue circle. Watch out for a bounce off the C line.
After that, a move lower becomes likely around the second blue circle, so keep a bearish bias and go short at the red circle on the small retracement after the C line breaks.
Take profit (55 pips) where it starts to look like it’s making higher lows. That said, the green line around 158.9 can be seen as the end point of the decline, so it’s also fine to set a limit order early and go to bed.
This article reflects the author's personal view of the market. It does not recommend any specific trade; all investment decisions are your own responsibility.
