2026/02/23 USD/JPY Trade Strategy
Today's USD/JPY call: Sell.
I think it’s fine to aim for selling the rally in line with the 1-hour flow, but the daily chart’s range is narrowing on both sides.
The idea is to go for the move down to the 4-hour key level, and once you’ve taken what you can, it seems best to take profit quickly rather than hold.
If there’s any case for buying, it’s that the 4-hour may have reached a pullback price zone, but since a double top has formed above, I’m basically looking to sell.
Review
It was a range day.
Early on, Scenario B gave a short from circle ①, but this one was a breakeven exit.
Price had been rising in the short term and there was no bearish shift either, so this is the kind of setup you could just skip.
The pullback right after it broke above the high would actually have been fine to buy if you were aiming for a short-term trade.
After that came the long from circle ② following the break of Line A, but this was also capped near the highs and came back down, so another breakeven exit.
It’s outside the plan, but the blue circle, the retracement after the subsequent bearish shift, was a chance to go short.
On days like this one, with a big drop where it’s hard to judge how far a retracement will go, it’s easy to take unnecessary trades and fall into stop-loss bleed.
Especially if you’re stingy with your stop placement, you’ll get stopped out right away.
Not trading on days when you can’t form a clear picture is also a good trade strategy.
This article reflects the author's personal view of the market. It does not recommend any specific trade; all investment decisions are your own responsibility.
