2026/02/17 USD/JPY Trade Strategy
Today's USD/JPY call: Sell.
Price failed to break out of the 4-hour range and is falling, but it’s now in a price zone where downside stalling looks likely soon.
If you’re going to sell, ideally you’d sell after it pulls back up a little.
If it breaks lower, the range low gets close, so you need to be careful in various ways.
Judging by the shape of the 4-hour chart, there are signs it could head higher, and the daily chart is also shaping up in a way where a rise wouldn’t be surprising.
For day trading, this means trading within the range, so a stance of not rushing and patiently waiting for a good opportunity is fine.
Review
It played out as Scenario B, then Scenario A.
Price bounced from around Line C, then turned down again from around 153.1, the rally high. I went short at circle ①.
The risk-reward is good, so it’s an easy entry, but it drops right away, so if you take your time watching, you’ll get left behind.
After the entry, price couldn’t break out of the range, so I exited when it stopped falling around Line C. 20 pips
After that, it moved higher.
I went long at circle ②, at Line A where the bullish shift happens, which also acts as support/resistance (S/R) on the 5-minute chart (M5).
It broke above the target range high, but came straight back down, so I judged it as an overshoot and took profit early. 44 pips
After that, price came back to Line A again and I looked for a 1-hour-level pullback, but there were no more opportunities that day.
This article reflects the author's personal view of the market. It does not recommend any specific trade; all investment decisions are your own responsibility.
