2026/05/20 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

As usual, everyone seems to be in wait-and-see mode, wary of intervention.
In terms of price zone, we’re at a spot where it would be fine for price to turn around and drop for a while.
On the 15-minute level it’s a sell, so taking a short-term short this morning looked reasonable.

From here, I’ll wait for a drop to around Line C and buy if it stops falling there.
If it breaks below, sell.
I don’t think there’s a high chance of it rising above Line A.

If it dips a little today and closes as a bearish candle, conditions might allow taking shorts from tomorrow onward.

Review

No trade

If buying under Scenario B, I think you could have aimed for a long around the red circle, where price turned up (making higher lows) after dropping to the C line, but given the time of day, I passed on it.

If there had been a turn down (lower highs) before the sharp drop around 11 pm JST (14:00 UTC), I could have shorted from above, but with this shape it was a bit difficult.