2026/05/18 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.
Since breaking through the key level last week, price has been rising in a straight line, but it feels like it has climbed about as far as it reasonably should for now.
The question is whether it drops from around here to form a pullback, or keeps rising all the way up to the rally high.
Even if it does go higher, it would feel more natural for it to form a bit of a pullback first.
Review

It was a range.
Price didn’t move much, as it was at a key level on the daily chart.
Early on it’s a short-term trade, but I go long at circle ①, the pullback after price broke above Line A.
It drops right away, so I exit. 5–6 pips
After that, price falls to Line B, the range low.
I go long at circle ②, where the rise after touching Line B forms higher lows.
This is the Scenario B picture.
However, it can’t break the recent high, so I exit early. 17 pips
From the morning rise, you can read the upper pink line as possibly being the range high.
This article reflects the author's personal view of the market. It does not recommend any specific trade; all investment decisions are your own responsibility.