2026/11/04 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Sell.

I was putting together a scenario with a bullish bias, but the price dropped sharply all at once and the market context changed.
This move may have been driven by the US midterm elections, but technically it was also near the upper end of the daily chart range, a price zone where selling was likely to come in.
At this point, the situation is starting to call for looking at it from the sell side.

However, the current price zone is where the price is only barely holding support, so I’ll watch a little longer before deciding.
I also can’t set a clear scenario yet for the A to B zone above, so I’ve drawn it wide.
Depending on how the chart develops from here, there’s also a chance of a bullish shift further down.

Around 10 am JST (01:00 UTC) was a good place to sell.

Review

It played out as Scenario A.

The morning’s sharp drop saw a full retracement.
After the break of Line A, I went long at circle ①, where the pullback turned into clean support/resistance (S/R).
Take profit where the rally stalled at the recent high. 30 pips