2026/07/10 USD/JPY Trade Strategy
Today's USD/JPY call: Sell.
The pair dropped sharply this morning, and it’s unclear whether it will keep falling or form a retracement first.
If it starts breaking above Line A, there’s a good chance we can buy in the short term, but this isn’t a market context where I want to be aggressively buying.
In the near term I’ll wait and see a bit longer, and only get in once I’ve figured out which line is holding.
The ideal scenario would be price ranging between A and C, with Line A clearly acting as a level that holds.
Review
It dropped.
Price pulled back a little above the red marker I was watching this morning.
On the 15-minute chart (M15), this is a high that formed as a small wave in the middle of the big drop this morning.
The best point was ○1, where price formed a double top against that high and started to fall.
Take profit is where the drop stalls at the recent low.
The reasons for entering are the double top at the resistance zone described above, the fact that this price zone is exactly a 50% retracement of the recent drop, and that it’s right where the 1-hour chart (H1) 20 MA had just caught up.
If you wait for a range breakout on the lower timeframe to time the entry, you get left behind, so it’s a bit tricky.
There are also plenty of cases where you short in a spot like this and price keeps rising, so I don’t think it’s a place to enter casually.
This article reflects the author's personal view of the market. It does not recommend any specific trade; all investment decisions are your own responsibility.
