2025/11/25 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Buy.

On the 15-minute level it’s a buy, but the higher timeframe picture is starting to hint at a move lower.
It seems best to look for buys as the base case while staying prepared for a switch to selling.

Scenario A

If price breaks above Line A, the case for selling weakens considerably.
I think it’s fine to go for a rise toward the recent high on the daily chart.
Target is around 206.1–2

Scenario B

I see the current range as a buy.
If Line C holds firm, I’ll be buying.
Target is Line A.

If price can’t break above Line A, I’d like to sell instead.

Scenario C

If price breaks below Line C, the downward flow gets stronger.
I’d like to wait for a retracement and enter short.
Target is around 204.7–8.
If it falls further, around 204

Review

It turned out to be Scenario B.

The first half was a bit ambiguous, but with the lower timeframe turning down (making lower highs), I read it as Scenario C and went short from ○1.
However, price failed to make a new low and started turning up (making higher lows), so it ended as a breakeven exit or a small loss. Around -5 pips?

After that, I went long from ○2, the pullback after price broke above a short-term high.
I judged that Line C hadn’t been broken, making it Scenario B.
Take profit at Line A, but since this was a window sandwiched between economic indicators releases, I set a limit order just in case and let it close automatically. 40 pips